5 guidelines for bluff-catching on the river

One of the most challenging and unpleasant situations in poker arises when you find yourself on the river with a medium-strength hand facing pressure from your opponent. You must decide whether to bluff-catch or fold and wait for a more favorable situation.

In this article, we’ll discuss five aspects to consider when making a decision on the river.

Table of Contents:

- Frequency of winning at showdown after a river bet

- River aggression frequency

- Bet size

- Opponent’s line

- Opponent’s graph

Frequency of winning at showdown after a river bet.

Statistics in Hand2Note 4 provide you with information on the percentage of times your opponent has won at showdown after taking a certain action, including a river bet.

Pay special attention to the stat W%SD. The lower this indicator, the more often your opponent will show a bluff at showdown, and the more often you should call their bet, and vice versa.

Let’s consider an example:

The fish with a VPIP of 74% and a PFR of 32% opened with a preflop raise, and we defended our big blind by calling with A5 suited.

We check-called on the flop and turn with the top pair, and on the river, our opponent made a pot-sized bet firing a third barrel.

The situation is challenging. It’s doubtful that our opponent would bet a third time with a pair weaker than ours, so we can only beat a bluff. Let’s delve into their statistics to see how frequently they bluff and then decide whether to call their bet or fold.

The dynamic HUD in Hand2Note 4 indicates that this player fires a third barrel in 80% of cases, signaling an aggressive playing style. However, let’s not rush to conclusions, given the small sample size. After all, our opponent may have had a strong hand on several occasions.

Let’s open the popup to get more detailed information:

As we can see, this player employed the third barrel 4 times out of 5, but hasn’t won at showdown yet. In the “Range” tab, we notice that, when called, he showed missed trash once, missed draw twice, and a low pair once. Therefore, the opponent is capable of bluffing, and with the top pair, I will definitely call him down.

River aggression frequency

To assess how aggressively your opponent plays on the river, open his popup and check the River Aggression Frequency stat.

The higher the value of this indicator, the more aggressive the player’s style and the more bluffs will be in his range.

Let’s observe how the strength of the river bet range changes with an increase in the aggression frequency stat, using multi-player reports in Hand2Note 4. With this innovative feature, you can track tendencies of opponents playing in a similar style and develop exploitative strategies against them.

Using an expression, I selected all the players in my database whose river aggression frequency does not exceed 35%.

Then I applied the “River bet” filter to select all situations in which players made a bet on the river.

The report shows that such players won at showdown in 66% of cases, which is a very solid indicator.

Now, let’s change the expression and select the players whose river aggression frequency is at least 55%, and see how the trend will change.

The frequency of winning at showdown for more aggressive players has decreased to 48%. This suggests that their river bet range contains more weak hands. Consequently, you should bluff-catch against such opponents more often.

Bet size

Most opponents lack balance in their bet sizing. Some opt for smaller bets when bluffing, reserving larger bets for their strong hands to maximize profit. Conversely, others employ big bluffs to apply maximum pressure, while keeping their value bets smaller to avoid intimidating opponents.

Let’s explore the correlation between bet size and hand strength on the river, focusing on passive fishes as a case study:

For the report, I selected all players with a VPIP exceeding 50% and a PFR below 5%, each of whom had at least 100 hands in my database. Then, I filtered all instances where these players made a bet on the river.

In the “Bet Sizes” tab, we observe that passive fishes won at showdown most frequently, specifically 74% of the time, when betting 80% of the pot and larger. After making smaller bets, they showed a better hand significantly less often, ranging from 43% to 54% of cases.

Based on this information, you should not bluff-catch passive fishes when they make large bets. If you call, you’re very likely to see a strong hand.

Opponent’s line

When making a decision on the river, in addition to your opponent’s statistics, it’s important to consider the entire line of the hand. The more active the betting was on previous streets, the more strong hands will be in the opponent’s range on the river.

To confirm this, let’s return to the report we received on passive fishes.

We see that in all scenarios, they win on average in 53% of cases after betting on the river.

In Hand2Note 4, you can compare reports side by side. Thanks to this feature, you can identify how a certain trend changes depending on various factors.

I pinned the obtained report. Then, in the new report on the right, using filters, I selected a strong line where passive fishes made an open raise preflop, followed by consistent betting on every street, including a third barrel on the river. Let’s compare the reports side by side:

It’s evident that their third barrel range is extremely strong, and in this line, their showdown winning frequency reaches an impressive 80%.

Thus, the stronger the line taken by your opponent, the less reason you have to think that they are bluffing.

Opponent’s graph

If you have a substantial sample size on your opponent, examine their graph. The patterns of the lines on the graph reveal your opponent’s playing style, with the red line depicting winnings without showdown and the gray line representing winnings at showdown.

Let’s analyze the graphs of two players:

Player 1

On the graph of the first player, it’s noticeable that their red line is increasing while the gray line is decreasing. This is typical of aggressive players who bluff frequently.

Successful bluffs contribute to the growth of the red line as their opponents fold. However, if their bluffs are called, they lose larger pots, resulting in a sharp decline in the gray line every time. When facing such a player on the river with a medium-strength hand, you should consider calling their bet more often.

Player 2

The graph of the second player reflects the opposite picture: the gray line is rising, while the red one is falling at approximately the same angle. This pattern is typical for passive players.

At showdown, they usually demonstrate only strong hands, and as a result, their gray line grows. At the same time, they hardly compete for small and medium pots and rarely bluff, which leads to a decline in their red line. Therefore, if such a player makes a bet on the river and you have a medium-strength hand, most likely, you should lean towards folding.

Correctly identifying bluff-catching situations is an important skill that comes with experience and practice. Analyzing statistics in Hand2Note 4 will help you better understand your opponents’ playing styles and make more informed and effective decisions on the river.